Just two months in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. After Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, opened his arms and roared. The team continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six games, now sit a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough proposition to address. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
According to Opta, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
