Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
